A crucial week for Bitcoin price prediction has seen the digital asset test key technical boundaries, with traders closely eyeing both chart patterns and macroeconomic signals for the next major move.
The past seven days have been characterized by a consolidation phase, with Bitcoin oscillating within a defined range, hinting at a potential breakout or breakdown in the near term.
From a technical standpoint, Bitcoin has found solid support around the $104,000 to $105,000 level. This area has been tested multiple times and has so far held firm, indicating strong buying interest at these prices. On the upside, significant resistance is apparent in the $108,000 to $110,000 zone. A decisive break above this ceiling would signal bullish momentum and could open the door to retesting previous all-time highs. Conversely, a failure to hold the current support could see a retest of the psychologically important $100,000 mark.
Graphical Analysis: A Coiled Spring?
On the daily chart, Bitcoin’s price action is forming what appears to be a symmetrical triangle or a pennant, a pattern that typically signifies a period of consolidation before a significant move. The price is coiling tighter between converging trendlines. The 50-day moving average is acting as a dynamic support level, while the price has struggled to stay decisively above the 20-day moving average, indicating a short-term equilibrium between buyers and sellers.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is hovering around the 50 mark, which represents neutrality and further confirms the current market indecision. For the next seven days, traders will be watching for a high-volume breakout from this pattern. A break to the upside, above the upper trendline and the $110,000 resistance, could see a swift move towards the $115,000-$118,000 range. Conversely, a breakdown below the lower trendline and the crucial $104,000 support could trigger a sell-off, with an initial target around the $98,000 to $100,000 area.
Inflation control could strengthen the dollar
The macroeconomic landscape, particularly the recent rhetoric from the Federal Reserve, is casting a long shadow over the cryptocurrency market. While the Fed has held interest rates steady, any hints of future rate cuts or a more dovish stance could be a significant tailwind for risk assets like Bitcoin. A looser monetary policy generally weakens the dollar and encourages investment in assets with higher growth potential. Conversely, a hawkish tone, emphasizing inflation control, could strengthen the dollar and create headwinds for Bitcoin’s price. Traders are parsing every word from Fed officials for clues about the future direction of monetary policy.
An often-overlooked factor in Bitcoin’s price prediction dynamics is the cost of mining. As of the second quarter of 2025, the estimated median cost to produce one Bitcoin has risen to over $70,000 for many miners. This increase is driven by a higher network hashrate and rising energy prices. This rising production cost creates a soft floor for the price of Bitcoin; miners are less likely to sell their holdings below this level, which can reduce selling pressure on the market. As mining difficulty continues to increase, this cost will likely play an even more significant role in the overall price structure of Bitcoin.